By Rick Anderson

For Grays Harbor News Group

In forecasting the Seattle Mariners’ fate, chalk up another victory for baseball’s so-called experts.

Regardless of the sport, so-called experts are seldom treated with respect. When a team exceeds expectations, players and coaches will often say something like, “The so-called experts picked us for the cellar and now we’re headed for the playoffs.”

You never hear representatives of an unsuccessful team say, “I guess the so-called experts were right. We did stink. I guess that’s why they’re called experts.”

At the midseason mark, the Mariners seemed almost certain to end a 17-year playoff drought. By winning an improbable succession of one-run and extra-inning games, the M’s were challenging the defending world champion Houston Astros for the American League West lead. More importantly, they owned a commanding advantage in the race for the league’s second and final wild-card berth.

Sabermetricians and other baseball authorities sounded a cautionary note, pointing to the club’s unimpressive run differential, they argued that Seattle’s first-half performance was not sustainable over the course of a 162-game season.

Optimists among the Mariners faithful disagreed. While conceding that Seattle’s starting pitching was overachieving, those optimists noted that perennial All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano would be returning in August after being suspended for failing a performance-enhancing drug test. They also had faith that such slow starters as third baseman Kyle Seager and first baseman Ryon Healy would pick up their production at the plate and general manager Jerry Dipoto would make some significant moves at the trading deadline.

Cano played pretty well following his return to the lineup. The other assumptions never panned out.

The M’s continued to struggle at the plate. Dipoto did next to nothing at the trading deadline — which, despite his reputation as an aggressive dealer, was consistent with his deadline philosophy throughout his three-year Seattle tenure.

While not collapsing in the conventional sense (their 89 wins were the sixth most in franchise history), the Mariners were quickly overtaken by the fast-charging Oakland Athletics in the wild-card race. Even Tampa Bay, a team that was in the selling mode at the trade deadline, mustered one more victory than Seattle.

That leaves Dipoto with three options moving forward. He could try to squeeze out a few more wins from the current personnel, dip into the trading and free-agent market to fill the club’s holes or blow up the roster and attempt to rebuild from scratch.

There are major problems with all of those approaches.

The age of the roster probably mitigates against maintaining the status quo. Several key players are at a point in their careers where they are far more likely to decline than improve.

Combined with the sorry state of Seattle’s farm system, that also means the M’s have few attractive bargaining chips to offer in offseason trades.

Several sources have contended that, to obtain quality players in trades, the Mariners would have to risk parting with such All-Stars as relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (who presumably would be untouchable), shortstop Jean Segura or outfielder Mitch Haniger — or perhaps starting pitching ace James Paxton.

I might listen to offers for the talented but injury-prone Paxton, but his departure would leave Seattle’s starting rotation in shambles.

Seager might have been attractive trade bait two years ago. Potential trading partners, however, won’t exactly be lining up to acquire a 30-year-old player who is coming off seasons in which he has batted .249 and .221 and seems unable or unwilling to adapt his hitting style to foil opposition defensive shifts.

The Mariners could land some decent free agents, but Dipoto repeatedly has expressed his distaste for that type of transaction.

Although ownership keeps claiming that money is no object in fielding a competitive team, the M’s appear destined to part ways with All-Star designated hitter Nelson Cruz — evidently on the misguided assumption that Daniel Vogelbach (who has yet to consistently hit major-league pitching) can provide comparable production at a fraction of the cost.

The lack of trade prospects also make a rebuilding effort difficult. In addition, it would be a public relations disaster to tell a fan base that has waiting 17 years for a playoff appearance that it might be another five or six before the M’s again field a contending team.

Barring unforeseen developments, the so-called experts will likely peg the Mariners for also-ran status again in 2019. After this year’s experience, it would be hard to dispute that forecast.