By Rick Anderson
For the Grays Harbor News Group
If Jerry Dipoto ever loses his job as general manager of the Seattle Mariners, I have a second career already picked out for him.
He might do well as a hypnotist — a 21st Century Svengali. Or maybe a CIA operative specializing in brainwashing.
Not only has he devised a legitimate but nevertheless debatable team-building concept for the Mariners moving forward, but Dipoto has mesmerized seemingly the entire Northwest sports media into believing that it is the only possible option.
It isn’t.
After the M’s faltered in the second half of the 2018 campaign to finish with an 89-73 record and miss the American League playoffs. Dipoto unveiled what he has variously described as a “step back” or a “re-imagination” strategy for the near future.
Declaring it was “obvious” that Seattle cannot compete with such powers as the Houston Astros and the world champion Boston Red Sox with last season’s roster, Dipoto has determined that it is necessary to trade veteran mainstays for prospects in the hope that the Mariners can return to playoff contention by 2020 or 2021.
To that end, he has already dealt away pitching ace James Paxton and starting catcher Mike Zunino while apparently parting company with All-Star designated hitter Nelson Cruz. More moves are almost certainly in the offing.
For the most part, the media has defended that strategy — to the point of also deeming a rebuilding project “obvious.”
To be sure, Dipoto’s concept could work. Saddled with an aging major league roster and an acute shortage of minor league prospects, the M’s clearly needed to transition to younger talent at some point in the future.
Houston followed a longer-term version of the same formula in capturing the 2017 world championship. Admittedly it was easier for the Astros to build a powerhouse around the talents of Jose Altuve, George Springer and Alex Bregman than it would have been for the M’s to use such first-round draft washouts as Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin and D.J. Peterson as the foundation for a future dynasty,
But rebuilding projects can be tricky in baseball. There is constant pressure for non-contenders to move productive veterans at the midseason trading deadline, particularly when those veterans express a desire to play for a contender. That often produces a vicious cycle of mediocrity.
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are two examples of once-proud franchises who have seemingly been in a rebuilding mode for more than 20 years.
It is also not obvious to me that the M’s are in such dire straits that total reconstruction was necessary.
Far from being overmatched against the American League’s elite, Seattle owned a winning record (10-9) against Houston and was a respectable 3-4 against the Red Sox. The Mariners’ failure to make the playoffs can be traced to their inability to dominate weaker teams and a woeful performance in inter-league play.
It also seems fairly obvious that if the Red Sox or New York Yankees were coming off an 89-win season that they would attempt to supplement their core talent by acquiring two or three impact players in the hopes of improving to at least 98 victories the following year.
Even the Philadelphia Phillies, whose 2018 season closely paralleled that of the Mariners (but produced nine fewer wins), have indicated they will go all out in pursuit of such marquee free agents as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Having made some good trades and brought modern analytics into the organization, Dipoto clearly has been an improvement over his immediate predecessors in the Seattle front office.
Perhaps that it why (at least until recent and as-yet unsubstantiated charges of racism by an ex-emplyee were leveled against him), he has been something of a Teflon man in the Seattle media. His administrative shortcomings largely have been overlooked.
Quite possibly at the direction of ownership, Dipoto has been unwilling to pursue free agents or high-priced talents in trades. Although the Mariners have been at least on the fringes of playoff contention in each of the last three years, he has declined to make significant moves at the trading deadline.
For all the team’s reliance on young talent, the key to Houston’s 2017 world championship was the acquisition of veteran pitching standout Justin Verlander at the trading deadline. It is virtually impossible to envision Dipoto pulling the trigger on such a deal.
The status of relief ace Edwin Diaz could be the key to Seattle’s rebuilding plan. The American League Reliever of the Year last season, Diaz is only 24 years old and presumably would still be in his prime if the Mariners re-emerge as a playoff contender in 2021.
Dipoto, however, has refused to label him off-limits in trade talks and rumors persist that Diaz is on the market — either this winter or at the 2019 trade deadline. If Diaz is dealt, it is a good indication that the Mariners value their balance sheet over their won-loss record.
As for Dipoto, if his “step back” works out as envisioned, he deserves all the credit for long-range planning.
But if the Mariners remain stuck in neutral or worse in 2021, his bosses and the media need to hold the general manager accountable for a failed strategy — and a missed opportunity in 2019.
That, to me, seems obvious.
