By Simone Pathé

CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON, D.C. — For nearly seven years, Republicans have run — and won — on the campaign promise to get rid of the 2010 health care law.

But now that House Republicans are on record on their own replacement plan, that unifying offensive message has faded, especially since some of their most vulnerable incumbents are at odds with leadership and the White House on what’s being touted as the party’s first major legislative victory.

Regardless of how the bill changes in the Senate, and who votes for a revised final version, Democrats plan to target all vulnerable Republicans for this vote, not just those who actually supported the bill. GOP leaders knew that, but they took a risk. They reasoned it was better to send the message now that Republicans can deliver on their campaign promises.

“Almost everybody in this conference ran on repeal and replace at some point in their political career,” Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole said before Thursday’s vote. “And it’s important for most of them to deliver on that promise when they’re given the opportunity to do so.”

But the big question — despite Thursday’s pomp and circumstance, first at the morning GOP conference meeting and later at a rare Rose Garden ceremony for legislation that’s only passed one chamber — is whether will this be a vote the Republican Party comes to regret in 2018.

The partisan script is now flipped: It’s Republicans, not Democrats, who have a plan to defend. And as Democrats know all too well, that’s often a more difficult position to be in when running a campaign.

“It’s true, it’s easier to be against something than for something, especially when it’s a big, complicated issue,” said New York Rep. John Faso, who came out in support of the bill after Thursday morning’s conference meeting. That’s a gamble he was willing to make, believing the GOP bill was better than the status quo.

The bill will undoubtedly change in the Senate, a point to which many House Republicans — even the bill’s more enthusiastic supporters — alluded. They suggested the repeal process had only just begun and that any divisions in the conference may not be reflected in the vote on the final bill.

“It really is important to remember that this bill is a green flag not a checkered flag,” said Indiana Rep. Luke Messer, letting his state’s upcoming Indy 500 inspire his metaphor. “The green flag lets the race start; the checkered flag is when the race is over.”

Messer, Republican policy chair, didn’t want to talk about the implications of the vote for a likely race against Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. But it’d be difficult to win any race, he said, without keeping his campaign promises to repeal.

“You could feel members didn’t want to go home again and have to say, ‘I hadn’t been able to get this thing done,’” said Cole, a deputy whip. Immediately after Thursday’s vote the House recessed.

More than three months into the Trump administration, Republicans needed to show they could govern with all three branches of government, said Cole, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“This is one part of that process — it’s a pivotal moment in that process — but it’s not enough to guarantee success or dictate failure,” he added.

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Democrats are pouncing on a bill that will likely result in millions more uninsured Americans and potentially higher costs for people with pre-existing conditions.

Faso, the New York freshman, is not worried about that. He’s likely to face a competitive re-election next year in a district that President Donald Trump carried by single digits. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates his 19th District race Tilt Republican.

“Pre-existing conditions are covered in this bill. The Democratic argument is false,” Faso said.

Over and over again this week, Republicans echoed that refrain when asked how they’d respond to Democratic attacks.

“Hopefully with the truth,” said Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, a Freedom Caucus member who’s also a top Democratic target in a Lean Republican district. Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden gave a similar response: “Because it’s not true!”, he said, rushing out of the GOP conference meeting Thursday morning.

New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur is ready to do make that case. He wasn’t an obvious candidate to enter talks with the Freedom Caucus. A Democrat target in 2018, he represents a southern Jersey district that Trump won by single digits. His neighboring GOP colleagues opposed the bill.

“I’m not concerned,” MacArthur said, noting that he’s holding a town hall next week in a town where he only received 10 percent of the vote.

“I will meet my constituents and talk to them, and help them understand that what they hear in the media and what fear mongers are trying to whip up is simply not the truth — that we’ve in fact saved the individual health system,” MacArthur said.

But if the recent past is any indication, political attacks don’t have to be true to work. Again, just ask Democrats, who have suffered their own health-care inflicted losses.

They greeted the bill’s passage on the floor Thursday afternoon with singing of “Hey, hey, hey, goodbye,” directed at their colleagues across the aisle. If Democratic attacks do resonate, it may not just be Republicans who supported the bill who suffer. In the 2010 midterms, 17 Democrats who opposed the health care law still lost their seats.

Next year, Democrats need to gain 24 seats to win the majority. The DCCC has already targeted members who voted against the bill, and now Democratic candidates are making the same case. In a statement shortly after the vote, Virginia state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, a top challenger to two-term Rep. Barbara Comstock, said Comstock “is responsible for the actions of her party.” (Comstock came out against the bill before the vote.)

Comstock was among four members of the NRCC’s Patriot Program for vulnerable members who voted against the bill. Two of those members who voted “no” were just added to the program on Tuesday. The NRCC promised to stick by all its members on Thursday, regardless of how they voted and said the vote will not affect eligibility for membership in this year’s Primary Patriot Program for dues-paying members facing a credible primary threat.

Cole, the former NRCC chair, predicted that colleagues will continue to write checks to Patriots, regardless of how they vote.

“There’s no such thing as an unimportant Republican member,” Cole said. “I don’t think anybody will have a shortage of help around here.”