Gasoline prices at stations and convenience stores in Grays Harbor County have risen sharply in the past three weeks.

Prices have jumped as much as $.40 per gallon for regular unleaded (87 octane) at numerous locations since the end of January.

According to a press release issued by AAA on Feb. 13, “As spring approaches, refineries are beginning their transition to summer blend fuel, which often results in higher prices this time of year.”

AAA Washington echoed that sentiment.

“Another thing to consider as we approach spring — gas prices tend to jump around the switch to summer blends, which occurs in March and April,” Mellani McAleenan, director of public affairs for AAA Washington, said via email. “The spring and summer travel seasons will also start to heat up in a few weeks, which can cause prices to fluctuate based on increased demand.”

As of Wednesday, AAA.com shows that Grays Harbor County has the sixth highest average gas prices in Washington at $4.269. Asotin County in southeastern Washington has the lowest at $3.519, while the national average is $3.164.

The state of Washington currently has the third highest average price in the United States, $4.10 per gallon, however, many stations in Grays Harbor County are charging prices well above that. According to gasbuddy.com, users have reported prices as high as $4.49 per gallon for regular and $4.99 for premium.

The Trump administration has announced a 10% tariff on “energy or energy resources” from Canada, which is now scheduled to take effect on March 6. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “(Washington’s) five refineries process domestic and foreign crude oils, primarily from Canada, North Dakota, and Alaska.”

“When tariffs are placed on imported oil or gasoline, costs for refiners and suppliers may rise, potentially leading to higher gas prices for consumers,” McAleenan said. “While tariffs can play a role in gas prices, they are just one factor among many. Others that may influence what we pay at the pump include global supply and demand, seasonal demand, production levels, refinery maintenance, natural disasters and geopolitical and global events.”

The question is what is driving the current spike in gas prices — market forces, the threat of looming tariffs or some combination?

“AAA cannot predict how high gas prices will go or when. Fluctuations in gas prices truly depend on the price of crude oil, which may be impacted by the tariffs,” McAleenan said. “We may see a slight increase as the markets and retailers react to the news of the tariffs. But it is too early to say if there will be long-term effects on prices at the pump.”

Requests for comment from the parent companies for the five Washington oil refineries have gone unanswered.

As for natural gas, the EIA states, “Canada supplies most of the natural gas that Washington uses. Almost two-thirds of the natural gas that enters the state comes from Idaho and most of that is originally from Canada. Another more than one-third enters Washington directly from Canada.”

Consumer natural gas rates work much differently than gasoline prices. As a public utility, natural gas companies must submit to a regulatory process that includes Purchased Gas Adjustments (PGA) and/or applying for rate increases through the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC). According to the UTC, PGA is used to adjust the price of natural gas to reflect the changing cost of gas in the wholesale market. The UTC only allows the cost of the actual gas to be passed to customers. Gas utilities use the PGA to recover actual gas costs.

According to the EIA, for the week ending Feb. 12, “At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price rose 39 cents from $3.17/MMBtu (British thermal units) last Wednesday to $3.56/MMBtu yesterday. Total consumption of natural gas in the Pacific Northwest rose 12% (0.4 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day)) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.” The price had dropped the previous week.

A brief regarding the potential impact of the impending tariffs released on Feb. 1 by U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., states, “The states of Washington, Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, North Dakota, New York, Michigan, Maine and Montana are the most significant importers of natural gas. These states all either rely on Canadian imports or help transport significant amounts of U.S. natural gas supplies from Canada to other states that rely on this fuel.”

Sen. Cantwell, who is the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, as well as senior member of the Finance and Energy and Natural Resources Committees, issued a press release on Jan. 31 that stated, “Two out of every five jobs in the state of Washington are tied to trade and related industries. In 2023, Washington state imported $19.9 billion of goods from Canada — primarily oil, gas, lumber, and electrical power — making our northern neighbors Washington state’s largest trade partner.”

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Washington state imported more than $8 billion worth of oil and gas from Canada in 2024.

With the spring road trip season and Trump administration tariffs on the horizon, if the current trend continues, Grays Harbor County drivers may be paying even higher prices at the pump in the coming months.

“If gas prices increase, it will not likely have a dramatic impact on people’s driving habits or travel plans, if the increase is modest,” McAleenan said. “Historically, high gas prices have not deterred people from traveling; however, at this time, it’s too soon to tell what kind of impact higher prices will have. ”