Strong storm front still expect to hit the Twin Harbors

System may not be as powerful as first projected

By Bob Kirkpatrick • October 13, 2016 1:30 am
Sal Prieto of Aberdeen, left, holding a sandbag, was among residents and Grays Harbor PUD employees outside of the Aberdeen Water Department filling sandbags Thursday morning in preparation for strong storm conditions through the weekend. (Terri Harber|The Daily World)
Sal Prieto of Aberdeen, left, holding a sandbag, was among residents and Grays Harbor PUD employees outside of the Aberdeen Water Department filling sandbags Thursday morning in preparation for strong storm conditions through the weekend. (Terri Harber|The Daily World)

The severe storm front that was expected to hit the Twin Harbors Thursday afternoon has come in like a lamb, but may very well end up roaring like a lion as meteorologists are still uncertain which weather model will hold true.

University of Washington Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Cliff Mass says there are significant changes in the forecast.

”Right now it appears that the late Thursday/Friday morning event will not be a severe one,” he said. “It will get windy Friday afternoon with sustained winds reaching 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph over Puget Sound, and a bit stronger over the coast and Northwest Washington.”

Saturday’s storm prognostication which meteorologists were saying had the potential to rival the 62’ Columbus Day Storm, may not reach that capacity now.

”The confidence in earlier forecasts were lessened by the different solutions of the US model and the vaunted European model, a classic situation for forecasts,” Mass said. “The US model was going for a historic storm with a central pressure in the 950 millibar range that hit Vancouver Island, while the European solution was weaker (960s) and farther south passing over Seattle. The new US runs have now shifted to a compromise solution, halfway to the European track and weaker, but still a remarkably intense storm for our region.”

Meteorologist Danny Mercer with the National Weather Service in Seattle said Wednesday the first stage of the storm was expected to bring up to three inches of rain and wind gusts up to 60 mph. He was also calling for a strong system to roll in Saturday. A call placed to the weather service Thursday afternoon for updated information was met with the same response.

“We are sticking by our original forecast,” Meteorologists Art Gable said. “We are expecting heavy rain and high winds in the coastal area Thursday between 8 and 10 p.m. and a much stronger system Saturday and possibly Tuesday as well.”

Multiple variables impact the accuracy of correctly forecasting the severity of a storm as it’s not an exact science to be certain, but one thing the meteorologist who are tracking this system do agree on is that we can expect harsh conditions throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Look for updated storm coverage in the Daily World newspaper, website and Facebook page. Tune into local radio and news coverage or visit the Grays Harbor County PUD website at GHPUD.ORG as well.