How long would you have to evacuate your home, place of employment or school in the event of a magnitude-9 earthquake off the coast before the wall of water from a subsequent tsunami roared into the Hoquiam/Aberdeen/Cosmopolis area?
In most cases, less than an hour, according to Daniel Eungard, geologist with the Washington Geological Survey.
According to inundation models, Hoquiam could see a tsunami up to 10 feet high or more in around 50 minutes. East Hoquiam and Aberdeen, about 60 minutes. Cosmopolis residents would have about 70 minutes to head to high ground before the water came up the Chehalis.
Eungard was one of the speakers at the tsunami-preparedness presentation Wednesday evening at Aberdeen High School. He pointed out some specific areas of concerns for area emergency planners, including liquefaction, when an earthquake rattles the soil so much it turns to liquid, making roads impassable.
“Most of this area is in the moderate to very high category for risk of liquefaction,” he told the crowd of about 40. “It’s going to force a pedestrian evacuation. Roads will be damaged, trees will be down, bridges could be out.”
Eungard said having an evacuation route mapped out is only part of an evacuation plan, but a critical one. People need to have a high degree of situational awareness while they are taking the route, under some of the most stressful conditions imaginable.
“You need to look around and say, ‘Am I going the right way for what is going on around me?’” he said. “Is that bridge up ahead still standing? Am I going to have to go around that long power line that I know is up ahead of me?”
The Geological Survey has made great strides in recent years modeling potential impacts of a Cascadia earthquake/tsunami event, including identifying slide areas that could block access to high ground. He pointed out the bluff along the highway heading into East Aberdeen, which could block vehicle access. He also mentioned the steep hillsides directly north of the high school as a potential problem area.
Another potential impact recently calculated is the amount of time it would take a person to walk to high ground from vulnerable areas. For instance, the wave from a tsunami would hit Bowerman Airport in about 50 minutes, but because it’s on a peninsula with no immediate high ground, it would take a person 60 minutes to reach high ground on foot.
“And at Junction City, there’s only one bridge to get out, plus another railroad bridge,” said Eungard. “If it fails how are you going to get to high ground?”
These models are created to give planners in cities and counties a firm idea of where their problem areas are and what solutions may be available.
Readiness is the key to surviving “the big one,” said Maximillian Dixon, earthquake program manager with the State Emergency Management Division. A “go bag,” something readily available containing a variety of survival gear ranging from food and water to comfort items, such as toys for kids, is a critical component. Another is being prepared to receive a warning as soon as possible.
“We have 68 (tsunami warning sirens) along the coast and the Strait of Juan de Fuca and we’re installing three more this summer, but those are only for people who are outside, not somebody inside watching TV,” said Dixon, noting the maximum effective range of a siren is a mile, and that’s when conditions are perfect. A NOAA radio is your best line of defense, he added. They can be programmed for specific events in your specific area, and work like a smoke detector.
“You don’t even know they’re there until something happens,” said Dixon.
At the first sign of an earthquake, he recommended the old duck-and-cover routine, which has proven effective in even the most severe of earthquakes. He said in order to survive a tsunami, you must first survive the earthquake that precedes it. And you have to stay under cover until the shaking stops, adding while the Nisqually Earthquake of 2001 shook the ground for 30 seconds, a Cascadia quake could last for up to six minutes.
Once it’s safe to do so, immediately head for high ground. And once there, make sure you’re high enough.
“The first wave isn’t always the biggest wave,” he said. “If you’re on high ground and the first wave has peaked, don’t think you’re necessarily high enough.”
Cale Ash, an engineer with Degenkolb Engineers, did the engineering work on the Ocosta Middle School evacuation tower and is working now on the proposed Shoalwater Bay tower about to come to Tokeland. He spoke about the structures and how decisions on evacuation structure design are made.
Tim Cook, state hazard mitigation officer with the State Emergency Management Division, spoke about federal funding for tsunami mitigation, particularly FEMA grants, like the one the Shoalwater tribe got for its tower just recently. His office is staffed with people who can get a community started with its own safety plans.
Bob Freitag from the University of Washington discussed a range of local funding options, from sales taxes to improvement districts. Most of these funding possibilities require cooperation from community members to approve contributing their own funds to the safety of the community as a whole. That’s what Ocosta had to do to finance its school and evacuation platform.
According to Chuck Wallace, a resident of Grayland and deputy director of Grays Harbor Emergency Management, it’s worth every penny he’s spent on it so far.
“Everybody has to put a dog in this fight,” he said. “It comes to $12.98 I have to pay for 30 years for the Ocosta school, and I don’t have any kids that go there. But imagine knowing how the kids in that school are going to be safe in case the worst-case scenario were to happen. That’s not worth $12.98 a month?”
Wallace assured attendees that just because they may not have seen any elected officials in the building, they have all heard similar presentations to the one they had just heard. In fact, earlier Wednesday, his group had met with representatives from Aberdeen, Hoquiam and Cosmopolis and recently with Ocean Shores and Westport officials.
The event was hosted by the Aberdeen School District and introduced by superintendent Alicia Henderson.
For more information on tsunami preparedness go online to dnr.wa.gov/geology or mil.wa.gov/emregency-management-division.