By Bob Condotta
The Seattle Times
Atlanta’s somewhat miraculous 20-17 win over the Saints on Thursday night added a bit of urgency to the Seahawks’ game at Jacksonville Sunday — not that Seattle really needs any more incentive, we realize.
But with the victory, Atlanta improved to 8-5 and tied in the win column with the Seahawks, who are 8-4. That’s especially relevant because Atlanta beat the Seahawks in Seattle last month and thus holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks.
Seattle currently holds the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs ahead of Carolina, which is also 8-4, due to a better record in the conference — the Seahawks are 6-3 in NFC games while the Panthers are 4-4.
But the Seahawks may now need a win this weekend in Jacksonville to hold on to that status at the end of this weekend.
If Seattle were to lose to the Jaguars and fall to 8-5 it would fall out of the playoffs at the end of this weekend if Carolina were to beat the Vikings in a home game.
In that scenario, Carolina would improve to 9-4 and would be the No. 5 seed (the Panthers would be tied with the but the Saints hold the tiebreaker on Carolina due to already having beaten the Panthers twice) which would leave Seattle and Atlanta tied for the final spot with the Falcons getting the nod due to the head-to-head win.
The good news is that if Seattle and Carolina both lose, creating a three-way tie with the Falcons, Seattle would stay in the playoff picture at the end of the weekend. That’s because Carolina would get the nod in the NFC South division due to having beaten Atlanta earlier, then creating a tie between Seattle and the Panthers which Seattle would win due to having a better conference record.
Atlanta and Carolina play again in the season finale on Dec. 31 at Atlanta, so that part of the equation may change.
Regardless, Seattle’s loss to Atlanta could be problematic, one reason I think the Seahawks were rooting tonight for the Saints.
That said, the bigger goal for the Seahawks remains winning the NFC West and Seattle continues to hold one big hole card there — a win over the Rams in October that for the moment gives Seattle the tiebreaker edge and means that if the Seahawks can beat Los Angeles in Seattle on Dec. 17 they would get the nod if the two teams ended in a tie.
NFC playoff picture
1, Minnesota, 10-2 (Vikings hold the strength of victory tiebreaker on the Eagles)
2, Philadelphia, 10-2
3, Los Angeles, 9-3 (Rams beat New Orleans earlier this year and held the No. 3 spot even before Thursday)
4, New Orleans, 9-4
5, Seattle, 8-4 (Seahawks, as noted, have a better conference record than the Panthers)
6, Carolina, 8-4
7, Atlanta, 8-5
8, Detroit, 6-6
The other thing Atlanta’s win did Thursday night is further distance the Falcons from the Lions and turn the NFC playoff picture into what realistically appears a seven-team race for six spots.
The good news for Seattle is that the Seahawks could move as high as fourth in the playoff picture at the end of the weekend with a win against the Jaguars and then a a loss by the Rams against the Eagles. In that scenario, Seattle would move ahead of the Rams due to its win over Los Angeles, but would lose the tiebreaker to the Saints, who at 7-3 will have a better conference record than the Seahawks, who as noted play an AFC opponent this week.
To restate the obvious, an awful lot is going to change in the next four weeks, and from a Seattle standpoint the easiest thing to remember is that if the Seahawks win out they will also win the NFC West and at worst be the No. 4 seed, though maybe, if not probably, higher.
