By Rick Anderson

For the Grays Harbor News Group

Forecasting the Twin Harbors high school league alignment for the 2020-21 school year can be compared to NASA attempting to determine the surface of Mars for a manned space landing sometime in the distant future.

In both cases, changes in the projected landscape are inevitable, but nobody seems to know what those will be.

The degree of uncertainty was accentuated by the recent passage of two amendments by the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association’s Representative Assembly.

In an effort to figuratively level the playing field for low-income schools, the Rep Assembly approved an amendment that allows free and reduced lunch data to be factored into determining classifications beginning in the fall of 2020. Schools with high free and reduced lunch rates could have its enrollment numbers reduced by each percent (with a maximum of 40) it exceeds the statewide average.

This amendment, incidentally, does not cover Class B schools.

The second measure establishes fixed enrollment parameters for each classification, replacing the current method of dividing all state schools proportionally. That could create significant imbalances in the number of schools in each classification and could even alter the format of state tournaments.

The large number of schools in economically depressed Southwest Washington with high FRL rates would seem to foreshadow massive changes in area league alignments.

Montesano athletic director Tim Trimble, the co-director of District IV athletics, disagrees with that presumption. The 40 percent cap on FRL reductions is one reason. The perception of what might be termed “bullying” — successful 1A teams, for example, using the new policy in an attempt to beat up on much smaller 2B schools — is another.

“I honestly don’t think many will take advantage of the amendment,” Trimble said.

One apparent certainty is that Forks, a mainstay of area 1A leagues since the 1970s, will drop to the 2B classification and likely join the Pacific 2B League in 2020-21.

The Spartans might be replaced in the Evergreen 1A League by Eatonville. Trimble said the Cruisers, who were briefly a league member before ascending to the 2A classification, will return to the 1A class and has petitioned to rejoin the Evergreen.

The biggest question locally concerns Aberdeen’s status. Because of its high FRL rates, Aberdeen is perceived as a likely candidate to drop from the 2A to the 1A class.

Aberdeen athletic director Aaron Roiko has been non-committal on the subject, telling Daily World Sports Editor Ryan Sparks that no decision will be reached until at least next fall and later emailing me that it is no certainty that the Bobcats will even qualify for the 1A classification.

From a competitive standpoint, a move downward might be less dramatic than many believe.

Having swept their Grays Harbor foes, the Bobcats probably would have won an Evergreen 1A League boys basketball title this winter and undoubtedly would fare better in such other sports as baseball and volleyball, for example.

But a drop to the 1A class could have little impact in Aberdeen’s traditionally two most successful sports — girls swimming and boys soccer.

Since there is currently no state meet in the 1A class, the Bobcat swimmers would continue to compete in the 2A classification. And because of the large number of elite Class 1A private-school soccer teams, many observers believe it is more difficult to make a deep playoff run in that classification than in the 2A class.

Willapa Valley ranks as the most intriguing wild card among the smaller schools.

Already a 1B-sized school in terms of enrollment, Valley has opted up to compete in the 2B class. The Vikings continue to be very successful in that classification, both as part of a combine with Pe Ell in football, baseball and softball and as a separate entity in other sports. They qualified both boys and girls basketball teams for state competition earlier this month.

Veteran Willapa Valley coach John Peterson said proposals to combine with Pe Ell in all sports or follow the lead of erstwhile rival Naselle and drop to the 1B class have failed to gain much traction.

Nevertheless, he added, the size discrepancy between Valley and larger 2B schools became evident in state basketball.

“We’re a tiny little school,” Peterson noted. “It’s hard for us to compete (at that level).”

The ban on 2B schools using FRL numbers to drop in class was designed to prevent an abundance of 2B teams flooding the 1B classification.

South Bend athletic director Tom Sanchez sees that policy as inconsistent at best.

“I suppose the company line is it will have no effect on 2B schools — that socio-economical issues don’t apply to small rural schools,” Sanchez said. “I beg to differ.”

Class 2B South Bend will, in fact, compete against 1B opponents in one sport as soon as next fall. Due to declining roster numbers, Sanchez said the Indians will play 8-man football next season.

The Indians briefly competed as an 8-man independent football team from 1990 through 1992. They were ineligible for state competition those years, but Sanchez said the school will petition the WIAA for state eligibility this time around.

With the rule changes more than a year away, Sanchez hopes the WIAA Representative Assembly can tweak the recently adopted amendments in the next several months. Trimble, however, doubts immediate changes are in the offing.

The Montesano athletic director is also skeptical that the amendments will provide a panacea for economically disadvantaged schools.

“You cannot argue that more affluent schools aren’t more successful in state tourneys,” Trimble said. “There are exceptions, but generally it is true. I just don’t think the amendments will have the effect that (proponents) want.”